Thursday is another day of transition and improvement in the weather. We start with rain and thunderstorms, but will end up drier. We start with mostly cloudy skies, but gradually clearing will take over in the late afternoon. And we still have some sticky moisture in the air, which will slowly return.
Another weak cold front on Thursday evening will remove moisture from the air, making things much more comfortable. Refreshing.
You’ll find a September feel in the air as we kick off this mid-August weekend. A chance of rain creeps into the forecast at the end of the weekend into early next week. Fingers crossed for a good soak – remember that part of NJ is experiencing a rainfall deficit of over 6 inches this summer.
It’s raining, it’s raining. We begin Thursday morning with a pocket of heavy rain and thunderstorms moving west to east across central and southern New Jersey. Radar estimates suggest Gloucester and Camden counties received more than two inches of precipitation.
Rain is just a morning thing. The largest group of heaviest rains will push off the coast at 7 or 8 a.m., then persistent showers will come out at 10 or 11 a.m.
For the rest of the day we will see mostly cloudy skies with gradual clearing. Hardly any breeze and no chance of rain in the afternoon. High temperatures should end up in the mid 80s. There is a good chance (but not a guarantee) that we Miss the 90-degree mark statewide for the first time since Aug. 1.
In the meantime, it’s still a bit sticky. We often refer to dew point as our measure of humidity in the air – it’s our “heavy meter” of summer. Dew points will slowly drop from the scorching 70s to the sticky 60s as Thursday progresses. They will jump down once more on Thursday night, into the 50s.
Another weak cold front on Thursday evening will bring us that last breath of dry comfortable air. This front could also trigger a brief rain shower at some point on Thursday evening.
With a few clouds overhead, temperatures are expected to bottom in the upper 60s by Friday morning.
There is another element to note. A Coastal Flood Advisory was released for Thursday evening. Not for the Jersey Shore, but rather for the Hudson River Basin in northeast New Jersey. An additional one to two feet of water rise is possible, which equates to minor category flooding. There are very vulnerable spots around Hudson, Essex, and Union counties. It is therefore worth being attentive and vigilant, especially between around 7 p.m. and Thursday midnight.
Ahhh, we take in a breath of cool, non-humid air. High temperatures will also finish a little below normal for mid-August, reaching the lower 80 degrees.
I fought with myself whether the sun or the clouds will “win” the sky on Friday. I opted for a mix of the two. It should be nice. And dry.
Saturday is going to bring a taste of September weather in New Jersey.
There could be a cool 50s on the temperature map on Saturday morning. And the highs should end just around the 80 degree mark. Again, below normal for this time of year. (Although not too much.)
An area of low pressure should be just offshore on Saturday. But I anticipate it will be far enough that it won’t be a problem in terms of overcast skies or precipitation.
Sunny, dry and pleasant. And again, you’ll love the low humidity.
Sunday gets a little trickier, as our next storm system approaches from the west.
Some models slipped into the showers on Sunday morning. I prefer a much later solution, the raindrops remaining until Sunday in the late afternoon or evening (at the earliest).
Either way, the clouds will rise on Sunday. The humidity will rise slightly, but not enough to cause a problem. And it will also be the hottest day of the weekend, with highs between around 80 and 85 degrees for most of the state.
The long term forecast
Monday could be quite wet. And given our growing drought concerns, that would be a very good thing.
The GFS and Euro models show pockets of rain cushioning the New Jersey throughout the day on Monday. But the consensus on “how heavy” and “how much” and “who is the hardest” is still weak or non-existent. Not surprising for a 96+ hour forecast, of course.
Bottom line: I would expect a wet and dreary day on Monday. This will keep temperatures even cooler, probably in the 70s.
Showers and remaining clouds are possible on Tuesday, but we should eventually have some sunshine. Wednesday looks pretty sunny and comfortable. High temperatures 80 or better both days.
There’s no trace of extreme heat for the next seven to ten days, at least. And a disorganized tropical wave in the Atlantic still has a long way to go before it threatens the East Coast of the United States.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.
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